[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Jan 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 18 10:30:07 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 123/76

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jan             19 Jan             20 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: No flares or CMEs to report. Region 1654 (N06W45) continues 
its slow decay, region 1650 has rounded the limb and 1658 (S12E14) 
is stable. No new regions. ACE data show the solar wind ranged 
between 370 and 440 km/s. After the onset of the 13 Jan CME at 
16 Jan/~2300 UT, the north-south IMF component remained mostly 
northward to 16 nT. Around 1230 UT the field turned southward 
to -14 nT. The field remains southward but is returning to quieter 
levels. The ENLIL solar wind model indicates the CMEs from 15 
and 16 Jan will be geo-effective, beginning to arrive around 
19 Jan/1300 UT. The solar wind should be mostly undisturbed until 
that time.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet to minor storm

Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      21   44324532
      Cocos Island        15   34323431
      Darwin              22   44324533
      Townsville          24   44325532
      Learmonth           23   34334543
      Alice Springs       24   44325532
      Norfolk Island      20   44324522
      Gnangara            18   43233532
      Camden              20   34324532
      Canberra            18   33324532
      Hobart              18   33324532    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    20   23213642
      Casey               25   45543323
      Mawson              29   45334454

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0000 1122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jan     8    Mostly quiet to unsettled. Isolated active levels 
                possible at high latitudes.
19 Jan    10    Quiet to unsettled. Active to minor storm levels 
                possible in the latter half of the period.
20 Jan    14    Unsettled to active. Minor storm levels possible.

COMMENT: Active and minor storm levels due to 13 Jan CME effects. 
Expected activity on 19/20 Jan due to CME effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Jan   122

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-35% 04-07 UT and
      20 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-30% 00-01, 09-11
      and 19-20 UT. Depressed 25-40% 12-17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-35% at Darwin
      20-23 UT. Enhanced 15-25% 00-03, 08-20 UT at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with some depressions to 25%.

Predicted Monthly T index for January:  80

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
19 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
20 Jan   105    Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.

COMMENT: Chance of fade-outs on lower frequencies.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:    3.4 p/cc  Temp:    41000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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