[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 February 13 issued 2326 UT on 22 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 23 10:26:25 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 FEBRUARY - 25 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Feb: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Feb 24 Feb 25 Feb
Activity Low Low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: No significant X-ray flare activity observed over the
past 24 hours. A narrow NE directed CME was observed in LASCO
C3 imagery after 06UT. SDO imagery confirms this was associated
with a solar filament lift-off in the NE quadrant reported by
Learmonth Solar Observatory 0348-0428UT. The CME is unlikely
to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed was steady at around 400
km/s. The IMF Bz component maintained mild (~-4nT) southward
bias over most of the UT day. The probability of significant
flare activity will decline after day one as AR 1678 rotates
off the visible solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 22123212
Darwin 7 22123212
Townsville 8 222330--
Learmonth 7 221231--
Alice Springs 8 2212331-
Norfolk Island 8 22233212
Gingin 5 221220--
Camden 7 22123222
Canberra 5 11023212
Hobart 8 22133222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Feb :
Macquarie Island 8 211241--
Casey 15 344321--
Mawson 17 4433332-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2220 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Feb 12 Unsettled
24 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet with Unsettled
conditions observed 12-15UT at low to mid latitudes. Unsettled
to briefly Active conditions observed at high latitudes. Mild
solar wind disturbance is possible day one following the CME
observed Feb 19. Continuing negative solar wind Bz may promote
geomagnetic merging bringing Unsettled to Active conditions at
high latitudes. Conditions should decline to generally Quiet
by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Disturbances possible at high latitudes next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Feb 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin depressed 10% local day. Learmonth depressed
15-30% local night. Otherwise near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 Feb 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF's mildly to moderately depressed across most of
the region Feb 22. Expect similar conditions day one with possible
deepening depressions days two to three as solar EUV radiation
declines. Mild to moderate variability/depressions possible next
three days, all Aus/NZ/AAT regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Feb
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 86500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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