[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 February 13 issued 2324 UT on 23 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 24 10:24:40 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Feb: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: Active region 1678 (N10W91) produced a C4.7 level flare
at 1609UT and a C2.9 flare at 1856UT. No associated CME was reported.
There was a solar filament lift-off in the SE quadrant early
in the UT day. A slow SE-directed CME was observed in LASCO C3
imagery after 06UT associated with this event. The CME appears
unlikely to be geoeffective. Solar wind speed declined slowly
from 400 to 350 km/s over the UT day. The Bz component of the
IMF fluctuated +/-5nT with periods of sustained southward bias
00-01, 09-11 and after 14UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 21122122
Darwin 4 21111122
Townsville 6 21222222
Learmonth 7 22122232
Alice Springs 5 21122122
Norfolk Island 4 21121111
Gingin 7 21122232
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 1 10011011
Hobart 4 11122111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Feb :
Macquarie Island 10 10154000
Casey 14 34333123
Mawson 29 43223266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2222 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Feb 5 Quiet
26 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Despite periods of sustained negative solar wind Bz,
geomagnetic merging was limited to high latitudes by the relatively
slow solar wind speed. Quiet conditions were observed at low
to mid latitudes. Isolated Active to Minor Storm intervals were
observed at high latitudes throughout the UT day. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions next three days with the chance of Unsettled
periods day one.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Feb 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Feb 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
25 Feb 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
26 Feb 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF's moderately depressed across most of the region
Feb 23. Expect similar conditions next three days with possible
deepening depressions as solar EUV radiation declines.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Feb
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 55200 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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