[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 February 13 issued 2324 UT on 21 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 22 10:24:06 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 FEBRUARY - 24 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Feb: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Feb 23 Feb 24 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Three consecutive minor C-class flares were produced
by AR 1678 (N11W65) between 0310 and 0505UT, the largest being
a C2.5 level event. No CME was observed. This region has continued
to grow, but will rotate off the visible solar disk in the next
few days. A large filament eruption was observed on the NW limb
Feb 20-21. Solar wind speed was mostly steady at around 400 km/s.
The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated +/-5nT over the UT day
with a mild negative bias during the second half of the day.
Minor solar wind disturbance may occur on day two due to a glancing
blow from the north-directed CME observed on Feb 19.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 32211122
Darwin 6 32211122
Townsville 9 33222222
Learmonth 9 32222232
Alice Springs 6 32211122
Norfolk Island 5 22211121
Gingin 9 32221233
Camden 5 22211122
Canberra 3 21110121
Hobart 6 32211121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 22201111
Casey 26 45632233
Mawson 27 54422255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1113 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Feb 12 Unsettled
24 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Unsettled 00-03UT,
becoming Quiet for the remainder of the UT day. Isolated Active
to Minor Storm periods were observed at polar cusp/cap latitudes.
Possible Unsettled periods day one of the forecast period. Minor
solar wind disturbance on day two may produce more frequent Unsettled
intervals days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Disturbances possible at high latitudes next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Feb 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin enhanced 30% 11-16UT, otherwise
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
23 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values
24 Feb 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF's mildly to moderately depressed across most of
the region Feb 21. Expect similar conditions days one and two
with possible deepening depressions day three as solar EUV radiation
declines. Mild to moderate variability/depressions possible next
three days, mainly S Aus/NZ and Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Feb
Speed: 384 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 71600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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