[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 13 issued 2310 UT on 11 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 12 10:10:51 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Only low level B flares observed over the UT day. Region
1670 remains the most complex region on the visible disc (beta-gamma
mag class). This region may produce C-class flares over the forecast
period. The the bottom-right edge of the CME initiated near AR1670
on the 9th is predicted to clip the Earth ~05UT on the 12th.
Solar wind was in the nominal 320-380km/s range and IMF Bz fluctated
normally with no extended southwards periods. Solar wind and
IMF should remain normal until CME assage.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 22211122
Darwin 6 21211123
Townsville 7 22221232
Learmonth 6 22212222
Alice Springs 5 21211122
Norfolk Island 5 22111122
Gingin 4 2221111-
Camden 8 42211122
Canberra 2 21100011
Hobart 4 22201112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 1100000-
Casey 11 24421122
Mawson 14 34211144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1120 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb 5 Quiet
14 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet at all latitudes. Expect some Unsettled
periods in second two thirds of UT day with possible clipping
by the edge of a CME expected at 05UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next 24 hours. Possible mild disturbances on the 12th with CME
passage (clipping by the edge of the shock front), particularly
at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Feb 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 79 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during the last 24
hours at mid latitudes with a slight depressions during daytime,
probably due to reduced EUV from the low number of sunspots.
More variability observed at near-Equatorial region due to the
anomaly being active. Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions
next three days with variable conditions possible at times Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Possible mild depressions on the 12th due to mild
geomagnetic activity from CME passage.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 34700 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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