[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 13 issued 2339 UT on 10 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 11 10:39:43 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Only low level B flares observed over the UT day. Region
1670(N19 W09) remains the most complex region on the visible
disc(beta-gamma mag class). This region is growing and may produce
C-class flares over the forecast period. LASCO and STEREO images
indicate a CME early in the UT day that is not expected to be
geo-effective. Further analysis of STEREO and SOHO satellite
imagery suggests that the CME observed on Feb 09 at 0648UT is
primarily directed northward and is not expected to be significantly
geoeffective. ACE data show the solar wind was mostly undisturbed
and is expected to be mostly undisturbed over the next 3 days(10-12
Feb).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet with Isolated
Unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22221212
Darwin 7 32221212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 8 33221222
Alice Springs 6 22221212
Norfolk Island 4 21211112
Gingin 7 22221322
Camden 7 222-----
Canberra 2 11110111
Hobart 4 22210211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
Macquarie Island 3 12310000
Casey 16 54422221
Mawson 15 33321253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1210 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 5 Quiet
12 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
13 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet conditions were observed over the Australian
region and are expected for the next few days. Unsettled levels
may be observed at times over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next 24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during the last 24
hours at mid latitudes with a slight depressions during daytime,
probably due to reduced EUV. More variability observed at Equatorial/N
Aus region. Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions next
three days with variable conditions possible at times Equatorial/N
Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 65500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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