[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 February 13 issued 2324 UT on 12 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 13 10:24:28 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Single C1 flare and a B-class flare from AR1670. Region
1670 remains the largest most complex region on the visible disc
although AR1671 newly rotated onto the disc is close in size
and complexity. These regions may produce C-class flares over
the forecast period. Filaments near AR1670 and in the southern
hemisphere appear stable. The edge of the CME initiated near
AR1670 on the 9th Feb clipped the geomagnetic field ~10UT on
the 12th. Solar wind initially dropped from 360 to 320km/s range
and returned to 360km/s in an hour or so. IMF Bz, which had very
low fluctuations prior, initially went northwards but only to
2nT before various orientation reversals over the next few hours
before a mild sustained Bz south of -6nT 20-22UT. Density increased
slightly after CME passage and rose through the day. So geoeffectiveness
was minor. Nominal solar wind conditions expected in the next
3 days in the absence of further CMEs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 21112222
Darwin 6 21112223
Townsville 6 2212222-
Learmonth 7 2202232-
Alice Springs 4 20112221
Norfolk Island 4 21012112
Gingin 5 2112222-
Camden 6 21112213
Canberra 3 11011212
Hobart 4 10011223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 0002210-
Casey 7 2322221-
Mawson 7 32122230
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 0122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Feb 5 Quiet
14 Feb 5 Quiet
15 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet at all latitudes. Expected CME edge arrived
at ~10UT but Vsw and Bz polarity changes were minor so little
apparent geomagnetic response. Expect Quiet conditions in next
3 days with possible Unsettled if extended Bz south periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Feb 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
14 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
15 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values across the entire
region during the last 24 hours. CME edge passage effects from
10UT on geomagnetic field and ionosphere were minor. Expect normal
conditions over next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Feb
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 44800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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