[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 February 13 issued 2346 UT on 07 Feb 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 8 10:46:28 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 FEBRUARY - 10 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Feb: 103/52


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Feb             09 Feb             10 Feb
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Visible regions on the solar disk have been predominately 
quiet during Feb 07. Very low to Low solar activity is expected 
for the next 3 days. No significant CME activity was observed 
over the period. Solar wind has been steady near ~360km/s for 
the last 24h. The Bz component of the IMF was mostly northward 
with a short reversal to the southward (up to -9nT)orientation 
between 04-08UT. The solar wind may be slightly disturbed on 
Feb 08 due to CMEs on Feb 06. Coronal hole effects are likely 
to impact late on Feb 09.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 07 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22232222
      Darwin              10   33232222
      Townsville          10   33232222
      Learmonth            9   23232222
      Alice Springs        8   22232222
      Norfolk Island       6   22222122
      Gingin               9   32232222
      Camden               6   12232121
      Canberra             5   12222121
      Hobart               7   12332121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    10   11344201
      Casey               16   34442123
      Mawson              12   32333223
      Davis               15   23443232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        7   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              1   0000 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Feb    12    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Feb    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet to Unsettled 
levels during the last 24 hours. Unsettled activity occurred 
in the first half of the UT day, 07 Feb. This activity was associated 
with a mild sustained southward Bz peaking near -9nT at ~05UT. 
Conditions during the second half of the UT day were Quiet. Unsettled 
and possible Active geomagnetic conditions could result from 
08 Feb due to a possible minor effect of CMEs on Feb 06 and expected 
effect of a coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Feb    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% 05-12UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Feb    75    Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb    75    Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. A 
a significant enhancement was noted at the Niue station between 
05-12UT. Mild depressions may occur at times during the forecast 
period in response to possible elevated geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Feb
Speed: 318 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    28900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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