[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 13 issued 2347 UT on 08 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 9 10:47:00 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 105/54
COMMENT: Only B-class flares observed over the period. The four
numbered regions on the disk remain largely stable, with alpha
or beta magnetic complexity and less than 120 millionths of disc
in size. Expect Very Low solar activity 09-11 Feb, with a chance
of isolated C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed
in the available LASCO and STEREO images. The solar wind speed
has been steady, near ~350km/s early UT day. Around 0300UT the
solar wind increased to 450Km/s, stayed steady at ~450Km/s for
the rest of the UT day. The IMF Bz component fluctuated between
+/-5 nT with a more disturbed period between 01-05UT. The variations
probably announcing the predicted weak geoeffective component
of 06 Feb CMEs. The solar wind is forecast to become further
disturbed days one and two(9-10 Feb) due CME and coronal hole
effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 22323212
Darwin 9 32322213
Townsville 10 32323222
Learmonth 8 22322312
Alice Springs 7 22322202
Norfolk Island 7 22322212
Gingin 9 21323312
Camden 7 21323202
Canberra 8 22323202
Hobart 9 23323202
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
Macquarie Island 12 11335301
Casey 16 34532212
Mawson 18 43433314
Davis 12 23333322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 1233 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 12 Unsettled
10 Feb 12 Unsettled
11 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was at Quiet to Unsettled
levels during the last 24 hours. Chance of Active periods at
higher latitudes on 9-10 Feb due to CME and coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Feb Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions are possible at times for
09-10 Feb.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
10 Feb 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions were observed at times during
08 Feb, particularly for equatorial latitudes. Mildly degraded
conditions are expected at times for 09-10 Feb. Mostly normal
conditions are expected for 11 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 57600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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