[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 February 13 issued 2342 UT on 06 Feb 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 7 10:42:49 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 FEBRUARY - 09 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Feb: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Feb 08 Feb 09 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Three C class flares observed, the largest was a double
peaked C8 class flare from active region 1667(N22E01) at 0021UT.
A Type II radio sweep was observed on the Culgoora Radiospectrograph
at this time, with estimated shock speed of 548 km/s. An associated
CME was visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery after 0024UT. SOHO LASCO
C2 imagery also showed a partial halo CME first observed at 0324UT
most likely associated with the flare activity. WSA-Enlil modelling
of the CMEs suggests a likely hit on 9 February, but the slow
speed and northward direction of the CMEs should make any impact
minor. Predominantly C-class flare activity is expected over
the forecast period. The solar wind speed was light during the
UT day near 350km/s. The IMF Bz was normal, largely in the +/-4nT
range. The solar wind is expected to be mostly undisturbed over
the next 48 hours. The two CMEs may barely glance the Earth late
on 9 Feb at the same time as a coronal hole high-speed wind stream
becomes geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Feb : A K
Australian Region 3 21110112
Darwin 6 32121122
Townsville 7 -----222
Learmonth 4 22111112
Alice Springs 3 21110112
Norfolk Island 2 21100012
Gingin 5 2211----
Camden 2 21100012
Canberra 1 10000012
Hobart 2 10100012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Feb :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Mawson 6 -1101124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 8 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0111 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Feb 5 Quiet
08 Feb 5 Quiet
09 Feb 10 Mostly quiet. Possible mild activity in the latter
half of the period.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at Quiet levels today. Geomagnetic
activity should be mostly Quiet for the next two days(7-8 Feb).
Coronal hole high speed stream effects and CMEs observed early
in the UT day (Feb 06) may have minor effects. Unsettled and
possible Active geomagnetic conditions could result late on day
3(9 Feb).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
09 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next 24 hours.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Feb 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb 75 Near predicted monthly values
09 Feb 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. Expect
mostly normal ionospheric conditions next two days (7-8 Feb).
Mild depressions may occur at times days 3 (9 Feb) in response
to possible elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Feb
Speed: 358 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 38100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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