[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 February 13 issued 2336 UT on 05 Feb 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 6 10:36:10 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Feb             07 Feb             08 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: The only significant flare activity of the period was 
a C6 event observed at 0819UT. The origin of this event is newly 
numbered active region 1669, now at N08E52. All other active 
regions on the visible disc are declining. Mostly Low level solar 
activity is expected for the next few days. SOHO LASCO C2 imagery 
showed a CME first observed at 0824UT, however it is not expected 
to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed remains near 350km/s. 
IMF Bz was normal, largely in the +/-5nT range. The solar wind 
is expected to be mostly undisturbed over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212111
      Cocos Island         2   12111000
      Darwin               7   23222212
      Townsville           7   23212122
      Learmonth            6   23112112
      Alice Springs        4   22112102
      Norfolk Island       5   22211112
      Gingin               4   22112111
      Camden               3   -2202101
      Canberra             2   12201001
      Hobart               4   13202001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     2   02111000
      Casey               13   25421112
      Mawson               6   23221210

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1010 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Feb     5    Quiet
07 Feb     5    Quiet
08 Feb     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Feb    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during. 
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Feb    75    Near predicted monthly values
07 Feb    75    Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. Expect 
mostly normal ionospheric conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 375 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    53000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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