[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 December 13 issued 2359 UT on 29 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 30 10:59:02 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.1 0756UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Moderate solar activity was observed for 29 December
due to an M3-flare observed at 0756UT from region 1936. CME activity
was observed around the time of this flare although analysis
of LASCO and STEREO-B imagery suggests the CME is not earthward
directed. Solar energetic proton fluxes decreased during 29 December
and are presently below event thresholds. Mostly Low to moderate
solar activity is expected for 30 December primarily from solar
regions 1934 and 1936. Recent CME activity does not appear earthward
directed and is not expected to be geoeffective. Solar wind speeds
ranged between approximately 350-400 km/s during 29 December
with the IMF Bz ranging mostly between +5 and -5 nT. Mostly light
solar wind conditions are expected for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 21121212
Darwin 5 21121212
Townsville 4 11121212
Learmonth 4 21121211
Alice Springs 3 11011212
Culgoora 5 21121212
Gingin 5 31121211
Camden 5 21121212
Canberra 3 21110201
Launceston 6 22221212
Hobart 5 22221211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 21120100
Casey 20 55432222
Mawson 14 53232321
Davis 11 34232221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 0000 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 6 Quiet
31 Dec 5 Quiet
01 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet levels were observed for the Australian region
for 29 December with some active to minor storm levels at high
latitudes. Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for
the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2140UT 28/12, Ended at 0725UT 29/12.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for
the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 130
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Dec 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Jan 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for
the next few days with the chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 300 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 31400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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