[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 December 13 issued 2358 UT on 30 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 31 10:58:07 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 143/97
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Low level C-class flare activity was observed for 30
December from region 1936. CME activity observed late on 29 December
and around 12UT on 30 December in LASCO and STEREO imagery does
not appear strongly earthward directed. Solar energetic proton
fluxes continued to decrease during 30 December and are presently
approaching background levels. Mostly Low to moderate solar activity
is expected for 31 December primarily from solar region 1936.
Solar wind speeds were predominantly below 400 km/s during 30
December with the IMF Bz ranging mostly between +5 and -5 nT.
Mostly light solar wind conditions are expected for the next
two days becoming moderate early on 2 January due to a coronal
hole wind stream and possible glancing impacts from recent CMEs.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 10211111
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 3 10111211
Learmonth 2 11111101
Alice Springs 1 10101101
Culgoora 2 00211111
Gingin 2 10111101
Camden 4 11211212
Canberra 1 00200101
Launceston 4 1-211211
Hobart 3 01211211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11100000
Casey 14 44422212
Mawson 6 22222212
Davis 10 23333221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 0102 0010
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 5 Quiet
01 Jan 5 Quiet
02 Jan 18 Mostly Unsettled to Active with minor storm periods
possible at high latitudes
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for the
next two days increasing early on 2 January due to a coronal
hole wind stream and possible glancing impacts from recent CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal
02 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for
the next two days with the chance of SWFs. Degraded conditions
may occur from 2 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 136
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Jan 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values with depressions
possible later in UT day
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for
the next two days with the chance of SWFs. Degraded conditions
may occur from 2 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 87700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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