[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 December 13 issued 2344 UT on 28 Dec 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 29 10:44:20 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Dec             30 Dec             31 Dec
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Low solar activity was observed for 28 December with 
the largest flare being a C9.3 from region 1936. CME activity 
was observed around the time of this flare although analysis 
of LASCO and STEREO-B imagery suggests the CME was a backside 
event. Solar energetic proton fluxes also increased around the 
time of this event and have crossed event level thresholds for 
the 10 MeV protons. These elevated flux levels are likely to 
continue for 24-48 hours. Mostly Low solar activity is expected 
for 29 December with the small chance of moderate levels primarily 
from solar regions 1934 and 1936. Recent CME activity does not 
appear earthward directed and is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Solar wind speeds ranged between approximately 300-400 km/s during 
28 December with the IMF ranging mostly between +5 and -5 nT. 
Mostly light solar wind conditions are expected for the next 
few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111112
      Darwin               4   11111113
      Townsville           3   11111112
      Learmonth            4   11111122
      Alice Springs        2   10001112
      Culgoora             3   11111112
      Gingin               2   10101112
      Camden               3   01111112
      Canberra             0   00000002
      Launceston           4   01111113
      Hobart               3   01111112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00001001
      Casey               12   33422123
      Mawson               4   21111212
      Davis                5   21222112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              1   0000 0010     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Dec     6    Quiet
31 Dec     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity is expected for the 
next few days with the chance of unsettled levels for 29 December.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began approx 28 12 2013 1840UT and is in
progress

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Poor(PCA)
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for 
the next few days, with degraded communications over high latitude 
regions for the next 24-48 hours due to a PCA event in progress.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Dec   135

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
      Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      117
Dec      73
Jan      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Dec   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Dec   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Dec   140    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced conditions are expected for 
the next few days, with degraded communications over high latitude 
regions for the next 24-48 hours due to a PCA event in progress.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 304 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    36000 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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