[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 December 13 issued 2336 UT on 11 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 12 10:36:57 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 DECEMBER - 14 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Dec: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 168/122 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest event being a C1.7 xray flare from region 1916 (S13W77)
at 2101UT. A notable Disappearing Solar Filament (DSF) located
at S37E49 was observed on the Learmonth H-alpha instrument between
0510UT and 0810UT and can be seen in LASCO C2 imagery from 0748UT
onwards. The ejected solar material was directed south of the
ecliptic plane and is not expected to be earth bound. Bz, the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
ranged between +/-3nT with a sustained southward period beginning
at 18UT up till the time of this report. Solar wind speed declined
from 375km/s at 00UT to be ~340km/s at the time of this report.
Solar wind speed is expected to increase in the next 24-36 hours
due to coronal hole effects. There are currently 10 numbered
regions on visible disk that all appear to be either stable or
declining in overall size. Solar activity is expected to be Low
for the next 3 days with small chance of M-class events while
the 10cm flux levels are expected to remain at elevated levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Dec : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 2 21111001
Townsville 2 11111011
Learmonth 3 21111002
Alice Springs 1 11101000
Culgoora - --------
Gingin 2 10012001
Camden 2 11101111
Canberra 0 00101000
Launceston 3 11212001
Hobart 2 11211001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 01101000
Casey 12 35322111
Mawson 11 33132124
Davis 13 23343123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1211 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Dec 6 Quiet
13 Dec 13 Unsettled to Active
14 Dec 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible
Active conditions for 13Dec-14Dec due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with MUF enhancements ~15% seen at low to high latitudes.
Chance of short-wave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Dec 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
14 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed across all Australian and NZ
regions over the last 24 hours with notable depressed conditions
for IPS Christchurch station during local day. Normal to enhanced
ionospheric support expected for Australian and NZ regions for
the next 3 days due to strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.7E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Dec
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 58800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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