[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 December 13 issued 2338 UT on 10 Dec 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 11 10:38:13 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 DECEMBER - 13 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Dec: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 180/133 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the
largest event being a C2.3 xray flare from region 1916 (S13W62)
at 2007UT. Bz, the north-south component of the interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) ranged between +6 and -5nT with a sustained
southward period between 02UT and 09UT. Solar wind speed declined
from 420km/s at 00UT to be ~380km/s at the time of this report.
Solar activity is expected to be Low for the next 3 days with
small chance of M-class events while the 10cm flux levels are
expected to remain elevated.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22112111
Darwin 6 23112112
Townsville 4 22112011
Learmonth 4 -2112102
Alice Springs 3 22111001
Culgoora 7 2-------
Gingin 4 22102201
Camden 5 23112111
Canberra 2 12101000
Launceston 6 13212121
Hobart 5 13212011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Dec :
Macquarie Island 4 12123000
Casey 10 34322112
Mawson 11 34322221
Davis 12 24432112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Dec 6 Quiet
12 Dec 6 Quiet
13 Dec 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours with
an Unsettled period between 02UT and 05UT at mid to high latitudes.
Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
12 Dec Normal Normal Normal
13 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with MUF enhancements ~15% seen at low to high latitudes.
Chance of short-wave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Dec 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Dec 125 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs observed across all Australian and NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Normal to enhanced ionospheric
support expected for Australian and NZ regions for the next 3
days due to strong ionising EUV flux (f10.7cm) levels.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Dec
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 50900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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