[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 December 13 issued 2342 UT on 09 Dec 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 10 10:42:29 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 DECEMBER - 12 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Dec:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Dec: 168/122


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Dec             11 Dec             12 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            175/129            172/126

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with the 
largest event being a C2.9 xray flare from region 1917 (S16E43) 
at 1130UT. Bz, the southward component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) ranged between +3 and -4nT with a sustained 
southward period in the latter half of the UT day. Solar wind 
speed gradually declined from ~540km/s at 00UT to be ~400km/s 
at the time of this report. A possible glancing blow from 07Dec 
M-class CME in the next 24 hours could see a minor increase in 
solar wind parameters. Solar activity is expected to be Low for 
the next 3 days with small chance of M-class events while the 
10cm flux levels are expected to remain elevated.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21011212
      Darwin               5   21112212
      Townsville           4   21011212
      Learmonth            4   21012202
      Alice Springs        3   21001202
      Culgoora             3   11001212
      Gingin               4   21012202
      Camden               4   21111211
      Canberra             1   10000101
      Launceston           5   22111212
      Hobart               4   11111212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   10002211
      Casey               13   44322222
      Mawson              11   22322333
      Davis               11   22333331

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17   5442 2322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Dec    13    Unsettled to Active
11 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
12 Dec     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with chance 
of Unsettled to Active periods due to a possible glancing blow 
CME from the 07Dec M-class flare. Mostly Quiet with possible 
Unsettled periods expected for 11Dec-12Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 
hours with MUF enhancements ~15% for low latitudes during local 
day. Chance of short-wave fadeouts.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Dec   116

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      117
Dec      73
Jan      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Dec   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
11 Dec   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Dec   115    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Enhanced MUFs for Northern AUS regions over the last 
24 hours with notable sporadic E between 7UT and 22UT for IPS 
Brisbane, Perth, Norfolk Is. and Niue Is. stations. Mostly normal 
ionospheric support for Southern AUS and NZ regions as well as 
Antarctic regions. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
3 days with continue enhancements for Northern AUS/Equatorial 
regions. Slight chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+05   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Dec
Speed: 552 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   273000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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