[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 08 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 9 10:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 DECEMBER - 11 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Dec: 166/120
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 168/122 170/124 172/126
COMMENT: Background x-ray flux remains elevated with only two,
low level, C flares from AR 11916 (S12W36) and AR 11917 (S17E60).
These two regions appear the most significant. New region at
S09E78. The limited STEREO images show a minor CME at 0025 UT
which does not appear related to any event on the visible disc
so is unlikely to be geo-effective. A filament lift-off 06-08
UT in the south-east quadrant can be seen in SDO and H-alpha
images. ACE data show the solar wind speed increased to ~650
km/s and has declined to ~520 km/s. There were strong fluctuations
in the IMF until ~07 UT with the north-south component range
+20 to -24 nT. Since ~07 UT the IMF has been undisturbed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Dec: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 08 Dec : A K
Australian Region 19 45422422
Darwin 22 55422422
Townsville 19 45422422
Learmonth 19 -5422432
Alice Springs 17 44422422
Culgoora 19 45422422
Gingin 23 55422432
Camden 19 45412422
Canberra 11 34312321
Launceston 24 55423432
Hobart 19 45423322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Dec :
Macquarie Island 25 45434522
Casey 65 78632333
Mawson 50 67534453
Davis 55 67643454
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Dec :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1120 0003
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
11 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Possible active conditions later on 9 Dec due to 7 Dec
CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: With respect to the predicted monthly T index, mostly
enhanced MUFs are expected for southern hemisphere propagation
paths and near predicted MUFs for northern hemisphere paths.
Chance of short-wave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Dec 114
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 20-40% 04-12, 19 UT. Near predicted
monthly values at other times. Strong sporadic
E 15-17 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values 02-19 UT. Enhanced
20-30% at other times. No Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced 20-30% mostly 04-09 UT. Otherwise mostly near
predicted monthly values. Sporadic E at Christchurch
12-23 UT, Hobart 13-15, 18, 22-23 UT and on occasions
at other east Australia stations 00-10, 21-23 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Generally weak ionosphere along with sporadic E.
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Dec 125 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
10 Dec 125 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
11 Dec 125 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E may, at times, disrupt oblique propagation
paths. Chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Dec
Speed: 330 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 35200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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