[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 07 Dec 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 8 10:30:17 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.2    0734UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec: 157/111


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Dec             09 Dec             10 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            150/105

COMMENT: Background x-ray flux remains high. Four C-class events 
and an M1.2 flare at 0729 UT. The M flare occurred in conjunction 
with a small filament eruption in the vicinity of AR 11909 (S17W61). 
Two new, simple regions, region 11916 () has grown while other 
old regions are stable or declining. The limited STEREO images 
show a CME around the time of the M flare. Although most ejecta 
is directed south in STEREO A images, it appears as a halo event 
in STEREO B, so the event will probably impact Earth, late 9 
to 10 Dec. ACE data show the solar wind speed 300-430 km/s with 
the IMF undisturbed until about 1720 UT; since then it has ranged 
+/-12 nT with other parameters increasing.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet to unsettled.

Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21101123
      Darwin               6   21101124
      Townsville           6   21201223
      Learmonth            5   21101223
      Alice Springs        4   21101113
      Culgoora             4   20101123
      Gingin               5   21101123
      Camden               5   21111123
      Canberra             2   10100012
      Launceston           5   21101123
      Hobart               4   20101113    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     2   11110012
      Casey               15   34432133
      Mawson              15   43222144
      Davis               11   33322133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              1   0010 0001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Dec    25    Unsettled to active with isolated minor storm 
                periods.
09 Dec    12    Unsettled
10 Dec    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 7 December 
and is current for 8 Dec only. Geomagnetic activity has increased 
over the last few hours probably due to large CME 5 Dec.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
09 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: With respect to the predicted monthly T index, mostly 
enhanced MUFs are expected for southern hemisphere propagation 
paths and near predicted MUFs for northern hemisphere paths. 
Chance of short-wave fadeouts.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Dec   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-07, 14, 18-23
      UT. Enhanced 15-40% at other times.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-11, 23 UT. Enhanced
      20-40% 12-23 UT. No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-05, 20-23 UT.
      Enhanced 20-35% at other times. Perth, near predicted
      monthly values 00-16 UT then enhanced 25-35%. Sporadic
      E mostly 06-11 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      117
Dec      73
Jan      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Dec   110    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
09 Dec   120    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
10 Dec   120    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Sporadic E may, at times, disrupt oblique propagation 
paths. Chance of SWFs.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 339 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    20400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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