[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 06 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 7 10:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 DECEMBER - 09 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Dec: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Dec 08 Dec 09 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Background x-ray flux remains high. AR 11909 (S17W48)
produced the largest flare, a C2.7, at 0648 UT. SDO images indicate
AR 11916 (S12W09) has increased in size and complexity while
other regions are stable or declining. There are insufficient
LASCO/STEREO images to ascertain the direction of any CME from
activity in the vicinity of AR 11909 around 05 Dec/~2100 UT.
No CMEs to report from available 6 Dec images. ACE data show
the solar wind speed below 360 km/s with the IMF undisturbed.
The solar wind may become disturbed 8 Dec due to the large, east
directed CME on 5 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22110112
Darwin 4 22110022
Townsville 4 22110022
Learmonth 4 32110101
Alice Springs 3 22210002
Culgoora 3 22110012
Gingin 3 21110211
Camden 4 22210012
Canberra 2 12100012
Launceston 6 22210123
Hobart 5 -3210112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 11100001
Casey 10 44221112
Mawson 11 33212134
Davis 11 33322---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Dec :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0112 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Dec 12 Unsettled
08 Dec 12 Unsettled
09 Dec 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Possible active conditions at high latitudes on 7 Dec
due to a coronal hole. Possible activity on 8-9 Dec from CME
effects - if it eventuates, expect storm periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: With respect to the predicted monthly T index, mostly
enhanced MUFs are expected for southern hemisphere propagation
paths and near predicted MUFs for northern hemisphere paths.
Chance of short-wave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Dec 131
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-35%
00-03, 11-12 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-08, 22-23 UT.
Enhanced 15-25% 09-12 UT, then 30-50% enhanced.
No Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values until about
12 UT then enhanced 20-35%. Perth MUFs 20-40%
enhanced. Some sporadic E 04-11 UT eastern stations
03-06, 20-22 UT at Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Dec 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
08 Dec 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
09 Dec 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E may, at times, disrupt oblique propagation
paths. Chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Dec
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 41800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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