[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 05 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 6 10:30:17 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 DECEMBER - 08 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Dec: 150/105
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Dec 07 Dec 08 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 155/109 150/105
COMMENT: Background x-ray flux remains high. The largest flare
during the period was a C6.7 at 1743 UT from declining AR 11909
(S17W35). AR 11915 (S30W35) is redeveloping, AR 11916 (S13E05)
is growing, while other regions remain stable or are declining.
Spotless region (S13E66) has produced C flares and the east limb
is generally active. The 4 Dec erupting filament was associated
with a CME. Three other CMEs, one from the west limb, a major
CME (1036 UT) from, it appears, just behind the east limb and
another around 2100 UT associated with AR 11909. The first two
CMEs are not expected to be geo-effective. The ~2100 UT CME should
impact Earth and the east limb CME, while not directed at Earth,
may be geo-effective; further analysis is required. ACE data
show the solar wind speed <380 km/s and the IMF undisturbed.
A small coronal hole is expected to mildly disturb the solar
wind beginning sometime 6 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11121112
Darwin 4 11122112
Townsville 5 21122112
Learmonth 2 10021111
Alice Springs 3 11121011
Culgoora 3 11121012
Gingin 2 10021101
Camden 5 21222111
Canberra 3 00021003
Launceston 5 11131112
Hobart 3 11121011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 00142001
Casey 12 44322221
Mawson 10 23132233
Davis 9 23332211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 13 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1100 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Dec 12 Unsettled
07 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Dec 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Coronal hole effects expected to begin 6 Dec. High latitudes
may experience active, possibly minor storm levels 6-7 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: With respect to the predicted monthly T index, mostly
enhanced MUFs are expected for southern hemisphere propagation
paths and near predicted MUFs for northern hemisphere paths.
Chance of short-wave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Dec 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 10-30%. Sporadic E 04,07,09 and 20 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced 20-35% 09-18 UT. Near predicted monthly
values at other times. No Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced 20-35%. Near predicted monthly values at
Brisbane and Norfolk Is. 16-23 UT. Mostly near
predicted monthly values at Christchurch. Sporadic
E observed around 00-02 UT and 08-11 UT at eastern
Australian stations and 17-20 UT at Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed 00-05
UT, then near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Dec 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
07 Dec 100 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
08 Dec 120 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E may, at times, disrupt oblique propagation
paths. Chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Dec
Speed: 374 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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