[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 December 13 issued 2330 UT on 04 Dec 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 5 10:30:23 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 138/92
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 140/94
COMMENT: A number of C-class flares, two C6 flares from the east
limb and a C4.7 flare from AR 11913 (S10W88). Background x-ray
flux remains elevated. AR11909 (S17W19) appears to be growing
in spot count and may produce an M flare while other regions
are stable or declining. The two C6 events may originate from
possibly returning AR 11893 (S13) which previously produced an
X-flare. LASCO/STEREO images show three minor CME events near
the east and west limbs, none are likely to be geo-effective.
A long, east-west filament in the northern hemisphere can be
seen erupting in SDO and H-alpha images. ACE data show the solar
wind speed 350-430 km/s with an ambient north-south IMF with
extended an extended period of southward bias. A small, recurrent
coronal hole is nearing a geo-effective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 21201111
Darwin 5 22210122
Townsville 3 11201112
Learmonth 4 21200122
Alice Springs 3 21210111
Culgoora 2 11200111
Gingin 3 21101121
Camden 4 21211112
Canberra 1 10100001
Launceston 4 22211111
Hobart 4 22201111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
Macquarie Island 1 10100010
Casey 16 34531132
Mawson 14 43311243
Davis 14 33322152
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1103 3121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 7 Quiet
06 Dec 12 Unsettled
07 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Activity expected 6-7 Dec due to the effects of a recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal Normal
06 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: With respect to the predicted monthly T index, enhanced
MUFs are expected for southern hemisphere propagation paths and
near predicted to slightly depressed MUFs for northern hemisphere
paths. Chance of short-wave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 124
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-50%
08-13, 22-23 UT. Strong sporadic E 04-05 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 15-30%
00-03, 10-14, 22 UT. Strong sporadic E 21 UT.
No Townsville data.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced 00-11
UT then enhanced 15-30%. Perth MUFs 25-35% enhanced.
Strong sporadic E at times 00-11 UT and at Perth 19-21 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with some enhancements
to 30% mostly in the latter half of the period.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 117
Dec 73
Jan 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Dec 110 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Dec 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E may, at times, disrupt oblique propagation
paths. Chance of SWFs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 84800 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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