[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 27 Aug 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 28 09:30:24 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug:  Very Low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Aug             29 Aug             30 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar flare activity remains at very low levels with 
no C-class or greater flare activity. No Earth directed CMEs 
were observed over the last 24 hours. A sustained southward excursion 
of the IMF Bz component occurred beginning around 07UT and peaking 
at around 18UT when the Bz component went to -18nT. The density 
and velocity of the solar wind indicate the signature of a co-rotating 
interaction region (CIR) ahead of a coronal hole high speed wind 
stream. The wind speed has increase to around 450 km/s at time 
of writing. Higher wind speeds and possible further Bz southward 
periods may be expected over the next 2 days. Flare activity 
is expected to remain at very low levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   11112342
      Cocos Island         8   11111342
      Darwin               9   21212342
      Townsville          10   21112343
      Learmonth            7   10002342
      Alice Springs        9   12112342
      Norfolk Island       5   11012232
      Culgoora             9   11112343
      Gingin               9   12003342
      Camden              10   21112343
      Canberra             5   12011232
      Hobart               9   11012343    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    18   01024553
      Casey               11   23223233
      Mawson              22   43123355
      Davis               13   32323333

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug : 
      Darwin              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         11
           Planetary              12                        

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4   11112121
           Planetary              5   21112121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Aug    12    Unsettled
29 Aug    10    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet in the first half of 
the UT day. In the second half, conditions were Unsettled to 
Active due to a sustained period of IMF Bz south in conjugation 
with the arrival of a coronal hole high speed wind stream. Conditions 
are expected to be Unsettled with a chance of isolated Active 
periods for the next 2 days before reverting to mostly Quiet.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Aug    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      70
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days. Some mildly depressed periods may be observed 
in southern regions on days 1 and 2.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.8E+07
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 359 km/sec  Density:    3.5 p/cc  Temp:    22300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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