[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 26 Aug 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 27 09:30:41 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 111/62

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Aug             28 Aug             29 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: No flare events to report. Four stable regions on the 
disc with a new unipolar region at N12 E81 that also appears 
stable. No CMEs to report. ACE data show the solar wind speed 
below 400 km/s with the north-south IMF component mostly southward 
to -4 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111111
      Cocos Island         2   21110011
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           5   32111112
      Learmonth            2   21100111
      Alice Springs        5   13111112
      Norfolk Island       3   21111111
      Culgoora             3   21111111
      Gingin               3   21101112
      Camden               4   12121111
      Canberra             1   01-10100
      Hobart               3   11121111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     2   11121100
      Casey                7   23311112
      Mawson              20   43123136
      Davis               13   23221135

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug : 
      Darwin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        5   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   1323 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Aug     5    Quiet
29 Aug     5    Quiet

COMMENT: An extended period of mild, southward IMF currently underway
may cause some unsettled conditions with greater disturbance at high
latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Aug    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values 00-09 UT. Depressed 25%
      22-23 UT. No data at other times.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. A 20% depression
      at 17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. 
      Depressed 20% at Darwin 05 and 21 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions
      to 15% 05-08 UT at some eastern locations. Depression to
      35% at 22 UT and spread F 15-22 UT at Perth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      70
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
28 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values
29 Aug    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    18500 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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