[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 August 13 issued 2330 UT on 28 Aug 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 29 09:30:26 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 29 AUGUST - 31 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Aug: Very Low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Aug: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Aug 30 Aug 31 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 108/58 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity remains at very low levels. No Earth
directed CMEs were observed. Solar wind conditions are returning
to ambient as the effects of a recent coronal hole high speed
stream abate. Flare activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 32221101
Cocos Island 3 22112000
Darwin 6 32222111
Townsville 6 32221102
Learmonth 4 31122000
Alice Springs 4 21222001
Norfolk Island 5 31321000
Culgoora 6 32321101
Gingin 6 31232100
Camden 6 32321101
Canberra 3 21221000
Hobart 6 22331100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Aug :
Macquarie Island 14 33452100
Casey 10 34232111
Mawson 31 64422236
Davis 13 34322214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Aug :
Darwin 16 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15 21023354
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Aug 5 Quiet
30 Aug 12 Unsettled
31 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: No significant magnetic disturbance is expected for
the next day. On days 2 and 3 some coronal hole effects may cause
Unsettled conditions.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Aug 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 70
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
30 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
31 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.6E+07
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Aug
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 28600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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