[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 13 issued 2353 UT on 07 Aug 2013

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 8 09:53:39 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Aug             09 Aug             10 Aug
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24hours. New regions 
1815 (N06W46) and 1816 (S20E44) emerged over the last 24 hours 
bringing the total number of regions currently on disk to seven. 
Solar wind speed ranged between 500km/s to 400km/s over the UT 
day, while Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT. A possible glancing 
blow from an 06Aug CME is expected late in the UT day on 09Aug. 
Very Low to Low solar activity is expected for the next few days. 
Current regions on disk appear stable and with low magnetic complexity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11100000
      Cocos Island         3   13110000
      Darwin               2   22100001
      Townsville           2   12200001
      Learmonth            2   12200000
      Alice Springs        1   11200000
      Norfolk Island       1   11100010
      Culgoora             1   11100001
      Gingin               1   21100000
      Camden               1   11100001
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Hobart               1   21100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
      Macquarie Island     0   10100000
      Casey                6   23320110
      Mawson               7   33210031
      Davis                8   24321011

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   3221 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Aug     4    Quiet
09 Aug    10    Mostly Quiet, possible Minor Storm levels.
10 Aug    14    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet conditions expected for the next 24 hours. A possible glancing 
blow CME arrival is forecast to arrive after 1900UT on 09Aug. 
Quiet conditions with possible Minor Storm levels late in the 
UT day for 09Aug. Unsettled to Active conditions for 10Aug.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Depressed MUF's for mid latitudes and disturbed periods 
for high latitudes over the next 24 hours. Variable conditions 
for low latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Aug    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      83
Aug      72
Sep      71

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Aug    60    Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug    75    Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Depressed conditions during local day for Southern AUS 
and Northern AUS regions and variable conditions for IPS low 
latitude stations. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. 
Similar HF conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Increased 
geomagnetic activity anticipated for 10Aug with possible MUF 
depressions of ~20% for Southern AUS/NZ regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 461 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    68900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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