[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 13 issued 2351 UT on 06 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 7 09:51:45 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24hours. A weak
type II radio burst was detected by the Culgoora spectrograph
between 0156-0205 UT and optically correlated to a flare from
an un-numbered region. Solar wind speed continues to gradually
decline from ~500km/s at 00UT to be 450km/s at the time of this
report. Bz fluctuated between +/-4nT over UT day. Very Low to
Low solar activity is expected for the next few days (possible
C-class events) with no significant active regions currently
on disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12111012
Cocos Island 1 11100011
Darwin 4 22111012
Townsville 4 22112012
Learmonth 4 22111012
Alice Springs 3 12101012
Norfolk Island 2 11101011
Culgoora 3 12112002
Gingin 5 22102013
Camden 4 22112012
Canberra 2 12102001
Hobart 4 12212011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 11201001
Casey 8 33321112
Mawson 17 44432124
Davis 25 52432136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 17 5433 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 5 Quiet
08 Aug 5 Quiet
09 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Disturbances possible at high latitudes over the next
24 hours due to recent geomagnetic activity. Variable conditions
for low latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF's near predicted monthly values for Southern AUS/NZ
regions. Depressed conditions during local day for Northern AUS
regions and variable conditions for IPS low latitude stations.
Disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Similar HF conditions
are expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 512 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 138000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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