[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 13 issued 2352 UT on 05 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 6 09:52:42 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Aug 07 Aug 08 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 110/60
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24hours. Solar
wind speed ranged between 550-600km/s for the first half of the
UT day before declining to be ~500km/s at the time of this report.
Bz was -10nT at 00UT after which it fluctuated between 0 and
-5nT over the rest of the UT day. Very Low to Low solar activity
is expected for the next few days (possible C-class events) with
no significant active regions currently on disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 Aug : A K
Australian Region 12 33243221
Cocos Island 8 32232211
Darwin 12 33243222
Townsville 12 33243222
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 11 33143221
Norfolk Island 9 3-332221
Culgoora 12 33243221
Gingin 12 32243232
Camden 12 33243221
Canberra 10 22243221
Hobart 15 22353322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Aug :
Macquarie Island 25 34365222
Casey 17 43332522
Mawson 66 85433466
Davis 29 43323654
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 18 2123 1644
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Aug 9 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Aug 5 Quiet
08 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Active conditions observed over the last 24
hours due to coronal hole effects. Solar wind speed is expected
to decline over the next 3 days with Quiet to Unsettled conditions
expected for 06Aug with possible Active periods for high latitudes.
Mostly Quiet conditions expected for 07Aug-08Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Disturbances possible at high latitudes days over the
next 24 hours due to recent elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Aug 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T indexes:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUF's near predicted monthly values with slight enhancements
observed at IPS Niue Station and depressed periods for Cocos
Is. Near monthly values for Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ
regions. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 67600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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