[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 13 issued 2338 UT on 04 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 5 09:38:58 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: No X-ray flare activity observed over the UT day Aug
04. A weak N-directed CME was observed after 03UT and a weak
SE-directed CME after 1530UT. Neither event has an Earth-directed
component. A moderate NE-directed CME was observed after 07UT.
This appears to be associated with a reported Disappearing Solar
Filament in the NE quadrant. STEREO imagery shows a strong N-directed
component but little, if any, in the ecliptic. Solar wind speed
increased over a few hours from 300 to 500km/s after 15UT with
onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream. There was
a sharper increase in solar wind speed before 22UT which may
be a signature of the CME observed Aug 02. The IMF Bz component
maintained moderate Southward bias to -13nT after 13UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 9 12221423
Cocos Island 9 11221423
Darwin 11 22221433
Townsville 12 22231433
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 9 12221423
Norfolk Island 8 21221323
Culgoora 10 12221433
Gingin 9 11220433
Camden 9 12221423
Canberra 8 11220423
Hobart 7 12220323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
Macquarie Island 17 01441533
Casey 10 22321333
Mawson 47 22232368
Davis 21 32332363
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
06 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Quiet early in the UT day
becoming Unsettled to Active during the second half of the UT
day. This followed a significant increase in solar wind parameters
after 12UT. Active conditions were observed at most IPS stations
14-17UT. Minor storm intervals at G1 level were observed at high
latitudes. Expect continuing Unsettled to Active periods day
one, gradually declining to mostly Quiet by day three.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Disturbances possible at high latitudes days one and
two due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Variable enhancements/depressions to 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Mild night-time enhancements.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T indexes:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Regional MUF's mostly near predicted monthly values
with variable conditions observed generally Equatorial/N Aus
regions. Expect short-term variability Equatorial/N Aus regions
days one and two. Minor degradations possible next three days
Antarctic/S Aus/NZ regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 26800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list