[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 13 issued 2350 UT on 08 Aug 2013
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 9 09:50:02 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 AUGUST 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24hours. Region
1813 (S13W19) showed signs of growth over the last 24 hours while
the other regions currently on disk remain relatively unchanged.
Solar wind speed was ~400km/s at 00UT and declined to be 360km/s
at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between +/-3nT. A possible
glancing blow from an 06Aug CME is expected late in the UT day
on 09Aug. Very Low to Low solar activity is expected for the
next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Cocos Island 1 11010001
Darwin 2 12200011
Townsville 2 11000012
Learmonth 1 11100001
Alice Springs 1 01100001
Norfolk Island 0 10000001
Culgoora 0 00000011
Gingin 0 01100000
Camden 2 30000011
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 0 10000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000001
Casey 2 12210001
Mawson 8 31111124
Davis 6 12211132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 4 2110 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 10 Mostly Quiet, possible Minor Storm conditions.
10 Aug 18 Active with Minor Storm periods.
11 Aug 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for 09Aug with a possible glancing
blow CME arrival forecast to arrive after 19UT resulting in Active
to Minor Storm conditions. Active conditions for 10Aug and Unsettled
to Active conditions for 11Aug.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for mid latitudes, variable
conditions for low latitudes and disturbed periods for high latitudes
over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions expected for next
24 hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 83
Aug 72
Sep 71
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric support for Southern AUS/NZ
regions over the last 24 hours. Depressed conditions for Northern
AUS regions during local night, variable conditions for IPS low
latitude stations and disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions.
Similar conditions are expected for the 09Aug. Increased geomagnetic
activity anticipated on the 10Aug with possible enhancements
for Southern AUS/NZ regions and Northern AUS regions during local
day followed by MUF's depressions of ~20% during local night.
Variable conditions for Equatorial regions and disturbed conditions
for Antarctic regions. Depressed MUF's 10-20% expected for 11Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.9E+03
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 111000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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