[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 16 Apr 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 17 09:30:26 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 113/64


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Apr             18 Apr             19 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours. Region 
1719 (N09W65) produced three C flares, the largest event being 
a C3.5 at 16/2132 UT. Region 1723 (S18E08) produced two C1 flares. 
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days, 
with a small chance of M-class flares. A northern-hemisphere 
coronal hole is unlikely to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed 
declined gradually over the UT day from ~400 km/s to ~350 km/s. 
The IMF Bz component was mostly positive to +4 nT until around 
1430 UT. Since then it has remained between -4 to -2 nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21000212
      Darwin               5   22111222
      Townsville           5   22111222
      Learmonth            5   21111222
      Alice Springs        3   22000212
      Culgoora             1   11000111
      Gingin               3   21000222
      Camden               2   11000211
      Canberra             2   11000211
      Hobart               3   11110211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   10000100
      Casey                5   31110222
      Mawson              23   30000247
      Davis                4   221111--

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   1110 2132     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Apr     5    Quiet
18 Apr     5    Quiet
19 Apr     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian 
region over the last 24 hours and are expected to remain quiet 
for the next 3 days. Storm level conditions are currently being 
experienced in Antarctica, most likely due to a prolonged mildly 
negative IMF Bz.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Apr    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Significant enhancements in Darwin 09-18 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal and MUFs near monthly 
predicted values over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are 
expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 394 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    23000 K  Bz:   7 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list