[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 17 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 18 09:30:24 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr: 108/58
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Apr 19 Apr 20 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, with
three C1 flares from region 1719 (N09W64). Region 1722 (S21W47)
showed signs of growth. Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next 3 days, with a small chance of M-class flares.
The solar wind speed remained around ~350 km/s during the last
24 hours. The IMF Bz component was mostly neutral.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Apr : A K
Australian Region 3 11112101
Darwin 6 22122212
Townsville 5 22211121
Learmonth 4 22112111
Alice Springs 2 11002101
Culgoora 1 11011001
Gingin 3 12112100
Camden 1 11101001
Canberra 0 01001000
Hobart 3 11112101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 5 23221100
Mawson 6 33222100
Davis 8 23233111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2000 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Apr 5 Quiet
19 Apr 5 Quiet
20 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet for the last 24 hours
in the Australian region, with some unsettled periods in Antarctica.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Apr 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal and MUFs were near monthly
predicted values over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are
expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 28200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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