[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 15 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 16 09:30:16 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 16 APRIL - 18 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Apr: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Apr 17 Apr 18 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low over the last 24 hours, the largest
event being a C1.2 flare from region 1723 (S17E27). Solar activity
is expected to be low for the next 3 days, with a small chance
of M-class flares. The solar wind speed declined gradually from
~~500 km/s to hover around 400 km/s. The IMF Bz component was
positive for most of the UT day, declining gradually from +12
nT and since 21UT fluctuating between +/-5nT. ACE EPAM data indicates
a modest increase in low energy proton flux since 19UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 22211032
Darwin 7 22222132
Townsville 6 22211132
Learmonth 7 22212132
Alice Springs 5 22111032
Norfolk Island 3 1211002-
Culgoora 4 12111022
Gingin 6 22211132
Camden 3 12100022
Canberra 2 11100022
Hobart 4 12211022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000011
Casey 7 33210122
Mawson 5 12210023
Davis 8 32222132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 2333 2312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Apr 5 Quiet
18 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet over the last
24 hours, with an unsettled period late in the UT day. Conditions
are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 16-Apr and quiet on
17-18 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Apr 86
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Apr 80 Near predicted monthly values
17 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with minor to
mild MUF enhancements. Similar conditions are expected for the
next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Apr
Speed: 477 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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