[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 14 Apr 2013

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 15 09:30:15 EST 2013


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 15 APRIL - 17 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Apr: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Apr             16 Apr             17 Apr
Activity     Low                Low                Very low to low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity has been very low today. Solar wind speed 
gradually decreased from 510 to 450 km/s during the UT day today. 
The Bz component of IMF mostly stayed positive up to around 10nT 
during the UT day today. Low level of solar activity with some 
possibility of isolated M-class flare may be expected for the 
next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 14 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22332212
      Darwin              12   23333223
      Townsville          11   23331---
      Learmonth           13   33332---
      Norfolk Island       8   22332122
      Culgoora             9   22333212
      Camden               9   22333212
      Canberra             6   12322111
      Hobart               7   22322212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Apr :
      Mawson              13   4342221-
      Davis               15   333-----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2201 1103     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Apr     6    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Apr     4    Quiet
17 Apr     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions stayed at quiet to unsettled 
levels today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected on 15 
April. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for 16 and 17 April. 
In the IPS magnetometer data for 14 Apr, a weak (10nT) impulse 
was observed at 0955UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with minor to 
mild MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Apr    94

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Apr    95    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Apr   100    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
17 Apr   100    Near to 20% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal today with minor to 
mild MUF enhancements. Nearly similar conditions may be expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Apr
Speed: 404 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    51500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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