[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 04 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 5 10:30:15 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Apr 06 Apr 07 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: A lone C1.2 flare from growing region 11713 (N10 W03)
at 0957 UT. Region 11710 (S22 W28) is declining while other regions
appear stable. Unnumbered simple regions at N18W13, N11E04 and
S15W22. A weak CME was observed in LASCO and STEREO A images
~~0909 UT and may be associated with a north-west quadrant filament
lift-off beginning ~0715 UT observed in SDO images. The CME is
not expected to be geo-effective. ACE data show the north-south
IMF mostly southward to -4 nT over the reporting period; other
solar wind parameters were undisturbed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 22112101
Darwin 5 2212211-
Townsville 5 2212211-
Learmonth 4 2212210-
Norfolk Island 4 22111111
Culgoora 2 12011011
Gingin 4 2211210-
Camden 2 -2111001
Canberra 1 0101100-
Hobart 3 12112100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 0101310-
Casey 6 2232110-
Mawson 9 4311221-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1001 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Apr 6 Quiet
06 Apr 6 Quiet
07 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: There is a chance of unsettled periods later on 5 Apr
extending into 6 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Apr 92
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-30%
07-10 and 13-14 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-25%
05-06 and 14 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-40%
10-14, 17-18 and 22 UT at Darwin. Enhanced 20-40% 16-18
UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. Spread
F at Hobart, mostly night time.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced.
Depressions of 30% at Mawson 03-04 and 14 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Apr 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Apr 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Apr 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 48100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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