[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 05 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 6 10:30:24 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/-- 1748UT possible lower South American/Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Two flares, a C2.1 at 0650 UT and an M2.2 at 1748 UT
both of which originated from the east limb. Region 11713 (N10
W18) grew while other regions appear stable. New regions near
N22E50 and N11E89. Two CMEs observed in LASCO and STEREO images,
a weak CME at 4 Apr/2212 UT was probably associated with a disappearing
filament observed in SDO images at ~2115 UT. This CME is unlikely
to be geo-effective. The second CME, first observed at 0712 UT
on the east limb, may be associated with the C2.1 flare. Most
material was ejected eastwards, any impact with Earth would likely
be around the beginning of 9 Apr. ACE data show the solar wind
was undisturbed over the reporting period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 12011011
Darwin 6 321121--
Townsville 4 221111--
Learmonth 3 220110--
Norfolk Island 3 12111111
Culgoora 1 11001011
Gingin 3 1-------
Camden 1 01001001
Canberra 0 010000--
Hobart 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 000000--
Casey 7 332210--
Mawson 2 2110011-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1201 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 6 Quiet
07 Apr 6 Quiet
08 Apr 7 Quiet
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) on
circuits with daylight sectors.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-05 and 20 UT. Enhanced
40-70% 08-17 UT and 20-30% at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-50% 10-23 UT at
Darwin. Enhanced 15-25% 07-10, 14-19, 23 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Some enhancements to
30%. Night spread F at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced. Depressions to
25% 16-19 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Apr 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
08 Apr 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Chance of sudden ionospheric disturbances (SWFs) on
circuits with daylight sectors.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 307 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 35400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list