[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 03 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 4 10:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 04 APRIL - 06 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Apr: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Apr 05 Apr 06 Apr
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Three, low level, C flares from regions 11708 (N11 W10)
and 11711 (S17 E 26). All regions are stable apart from 11713
(N09 E10) which showed renewed growth and produced a sub (B)
flare. A new region emerged at N18, W01. A CME was observed in
LASCO and STEREO images and may have been associated with a filament
in the northern hemisphere that has been active in the past few
days. This CME is not Earth bound. ACE data show the solar wind
was undisturbed over the reporting period with nominal north-south
IMF and wind speed below 380 km/s. Region 1692 (N9) which previously
produced M flare(s) is due to return around 4 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11011111
Darwin 6 22112222
Townsville 4 12111121
Learmonth 3 -2011211
Norfolk Island 3 21111111
Culgoora 1 11000001
Gingin 3 11111211
Camden 1 11001001
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 11000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 6 32211211
Mawson 6 32100123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Apr :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2000 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Apr 6 Quiet
05 Apr 6 Quiet
06 Apr 6 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Apr 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements of
25% 08-10, 19 UT and 35-60% 13-18 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 30-55% 07-14
UT and 25% 18-19 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 25-50% 06-14
UT and 15-25% 18-22 UT at Darwin. Enhanced 20-25%
05-08 UT at Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Night spread F
at Hobart.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced during
local day and depressions to 25% local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Apr 95 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
05 Apr 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Apr 90 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Apr
Speed: 356 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 48900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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