[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 April 13 issued 2330 UT on 02 Apr 2013
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 3 10:30:21 EST 2013
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 APRIL 2013 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 03 APRIL - 05 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Apr: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Region 11710 (S21 W02) is growing while other regions
appear stable. STEREO and LASCO images show no Earth directed
CMEs. The solar wind was undisturbed over the reporting period.
A small, northern hemisphere coronal hole will rotate into a
geo-effective position late on 3 Apr and may slightly disturb
the solar wind.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 5 22111222
Townsville 4 2221111-
Learmonth 2 2-100021
Norfolk Island 4 21111112
Culgoora 1 10000111
Gingin 4 11111221
Camden 1 10000111
Canberra 1 10000011
Hobart 1 11000111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 7 33211122
Mawson 19 42111246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 1221 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Apr 7 Mostly quiet
04 Apr 8 Quiet to unsettled
05 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Slight activity on 4 Apr due to the effects of a small
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Apr 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced 20-35% 07-09
and 13-14 UT. Depressed 23% at 23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions of 15-30%
00, 16-17 and 21 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions of 20-30%
16-18 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions of 20-30%
14-19 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Apr 75 Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
05 Apr 70 Near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Apr
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 63000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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