[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 12 issued 2329 UT on 23 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 24 09:29:50 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: A long-duration minor C-class flare was observed 1502-1855UT.
Limited available solar imagery indicates an associated CME mostly
N of the ecliptic and probably originating near the E limb, hence
unlikely to be geoeffective. E limb activity over the past few
days indicates an active region or regions about to rotate onto
the visible solar disk. Active region 1577 (N09E31) has shown
growth in interior spots. Solar wind speed continued a slow decline
from 400 to 350 km/s over the UT day. The IMF Bz component was
mildly (+2nT) northward over most of the day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 11000001
Darwin 1 10000002
Townsville 5 22111122
Learmonth 2 21111001
Norfolk Island 0 10000000
Camden 0 00000001
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 0 01000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 33310000
Mawson 0 10000000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 1112 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 4 Quiet
25 Sep 3 Quiet
26 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Declining solar wind speed and mildly northward IMF
Bz resulted in very quiet geomagnetic conditions at all latitudes
over the UT day. Expect quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Darwin strong enhancement 11-16UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions observed Equatorial
region. Other Aus/NZ regions MUF's mostly normal. Expect mostly
normal ionospheric conditions next three days with variable conditions
possible at times Equatorial/N Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 442 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 55900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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