[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 12 issued 2350 UT on 24 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 25 09:50:40 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Sep 26 Sep 27 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Two C1 flares were
observed. The first one of these, a C1.6 from region 1578
(N21E10), peaked at 1542 UT. The other flare, A C1.9 was a
relatively longer duration flare and it peaked at 1931 UT.
The C1.9 flare was from an un-numbered region near south-east
limb. Solar wind speed varied between 350 and 400 km/s during
the UT day today and the Bz component of IMF varied between
+/- 4nT during most of this period. Low levels of solar
activity may be expected for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 2 11100112
Townsville 4 11111221
Learmonth 4 22111111
Norfolk Island 1 10000111
Camden 1 10100111
Canberra 0 00000101
Hobart 1 00100101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 23210011
Mawson 4 22000013
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 0001 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Sep 4 Quiet
26 Sep 4 Quiet
27 Sep 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today.
Nearly similar level of activity may be expected for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal
26 Sep Normal Normal Normal
27 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days in this region as no significant variation
is expected in the ionospheric conditions during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Sep 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
27 Sep 85 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions observed Equatorial
region. Other Aus/NZ regions MUF's mostly normal. Expect mostly
normal ionospheric conditions next three days with variable
conditions possible at times in Equatorial/N Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 372 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 26100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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