[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 12 issued 2348 UT on 13 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 14 09:48:06 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for 13 September, with several
C-class flares mostly from region 1569(S13E27). This region increased
in magnetic complexity and may produce isolated M-class flares
over the forecast period. An erupting filament from the NW quadrant
around 0640UT produced a slow CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery
after 0740UT. WSA-Enlil modelling of the CME suggests a likely
hit on 16 September, but the slow speed and predominant northward
direction of the CME should make any impact minor. The Bz component
of the IMF was mostly northward with short reversals to the southward
orientation. Solar wind speed remained below 420Km/s during 13
September and is expected to remain at that level for the next
24 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 22201211
Darwin 5 22201212
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 9 23222322
Norfolk Island 3 22101111
Camden 4 22201211
Canberra 3 12200211
Hobart 4 22101211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 12000110
Casey 9 34311210
Mawson 10 53310110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2113 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 7 Quiet
15 Sep 7 Quiet
16 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian region
with isolated cases of Active levels in the Antarctic region
over the UT day. Expect mostly Quiet conditions to prevail over
the next two days(14-15 September). Activity may increase to
Unsettled levels on day three (16 September)due the possible
arrival of a weak CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 13 September. MUFs
are expected to be around predicted monthly values for the remainder
of the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 284 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 20900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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