[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 12 issued 2347 UT on 14 Sep 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 15 09:47:44 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Sep             16 Sep             17 Sep
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Visible regions on the solar disk have been predominately 
stable and quiet during 14 September. No large or magnetically 
complex regions are on the disk. Solar activity is expected to 
be Very Low for the next 3 days. There continue to be a chance 
of C-class flares. No possible geoeffective CMEs were observed 
during 14 September. The Bz component of the IMF was mostly northward 
with short reversals to the southward orientation. Solar wind 
has been steady near ~440km/s for the last 24h. A small coronal 
hole high speed wind stream is expected to mildly elevate the 
solar wind speed late on September 15. A further slight increase 
on September 16 is possible due to September 13 CME effects. 
This CME is expected to produce only minor, if any, disturbance 
at Earth.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21101212
      Darwin               5   21101213
      Townsville           6   22212222
      Learmonth            7   22211322
      Norfolk Island       3   21001212
      Camden               4   21101212
      Canberra             2   11001202
      Hobart               5   11102312    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     2   00001301
      Casey               11   34421201
      Mawson               5   23211111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            55   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   3210 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active
17 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian region 
with isolated cases of Active levels in the Antarctic region 
over the UT day. Late on 15 September UT a weak coronal hole 
high speed solar wind stream becomes geoeffective, may cause 
some Unsettled periods with a probable increase to Active levels 
on 16 September due the possible arrival of a weak CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
16 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
17 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Minor MUF depressions may be observed for the next three 
days, especially at mid and high latitude locations.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
14 Sep    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
16 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
17 Sep    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: HF conditions were Normal with some depressions at low 
latitudes in the north. Expect minor depressions for the next 
3 days in the Australian/Antarctic regions due to a slight increase 
in geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    86500 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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