[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 September 12 issued 2339 UT on 12 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 13 09:39:43 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 SEPTEMBER - 15 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Sep: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Sep 14 Sep 15 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low for 12 September, with several
C-class flares mostly from AR 1564 and AR 1567. Predominantly
C-class flare activity is expected over the forecast period with
the small chance of isolated M-class flares. Two new regions,
1570(S13W34) and 1571(S12E57) were numbered today. No significant
CME activity was observed over the period. The solar wind speed
showed a minor upward trend from 300 to 400km/s around 1900UT.There
was a sustained period of southward(-5nT) IMF Bz from 1900UT
to 2000UT otherwise Bz was mostly neutral. Expect the solar wind
to remain light over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Sep: Mostly Quiet with isolated
Unsettled periods.
Estimated Indices 12 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 11232122
Darwin 7 12222123
Townsville 10 22232233
Learmonth 8 22232222
Norfolk Island 6 11232022
Camden 6 11232112
Canberra 5 11231012
Hobart 5 11231012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Sep :
Macquarie Island 2 10030001
Casey 6 22221122
Mawson 12 23112135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Sep 7 Quiet
14 Sep 7 Quiet
15 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet with isolated
cases of Unsettled levels. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for
the next three days (13-15 September).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal for the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Sep 76
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
14 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
15 Sep 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal for 12 September. MUFs
are expected to be around predicted monthly values for the remainder
of the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Sep
Speed: 298 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 21300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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