[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 September 12 issued 2301 UT on 08 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 9 09:01:12 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 SEPTEMBER - 11 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1 1759UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Sep: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during the UT day, 08 September
with several C class flares and an M1.4 peaking at 1759UT from
AR 1564(S15W41). C2 LASCO imagery showed a CME on the west limb
beginning at 10UT, but is not expected to be geoeffective. The
solar wind speed was light during the UT day ranging between
400 and 360 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF varied between
-6 and 5nT. Expect Low solar activity for the next three days
with a chance of M-class flares. Expect the solar wind to remain
light over the next three days with possibilities of weak reconnection
due to periods of a weak southward Bz orientation.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 12121211
Darwin 4 12121211
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 22122321
Norfolk_Island 3 22021110
Camden 4 12121211
Canberra 4 12121211
Hobart 5 12122211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Sep :
Macquarie_Island 10 12234321
Casey 8 33321211
Mawson 19 45332333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 1332 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Sep 6 Quiet
10 Sep 6 Quiet
11 Sep 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Mostly Quiet in the Australian
region with isolated cases of Active levels in the Antarctic
region over the UT day, 08 September. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
to prevail over the next two days with possible cases of Unsettled
or Active levels particularly at high latitudes. Late on 11 September
geomagnetic activity may increase due to M-class flare from AR
1564 occurring at 08/1759UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Sep 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Sep 79 near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 79 near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 79 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions noted during the UT day,
08 September. Expect near predicted HF conditions for the next
three days, 09-11 September.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Sep
Speed: 385 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 64900 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list