[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 September 12 issued 2307 UT on 07 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 8 09:07:36 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 SEPTEMBER - 10 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Sep: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 07 September
with several C class flares from active regions 1560(N04W89)
and 1562(S22W64). The solar wind speed was light during the UT
day and the Bz component of the IMF was mostly southward peaking
at -7nT. Expect solar activity to be Low for the next 3 days,
08-10 September. Expect the solar wind to remain light over the
next three days with possibilities of weak reconnection due to
periods of a weak southward Bz orientation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 22222231
Darwin 8 32222231
Townsville 11 3332223-
Learmonth 9 2222323-
Norfolk_Island 6 22222221
Camden 7 22212231
Canberra 7 22222230
Hobart 10 22323232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Sep :
Macquarie_Island 16 12444332
Casey 15 4432223-
Mawson 22 3532325-
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12 4311 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Sep 6 Quiet
10 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day, 07 September, with isolated cases of Active levels at
higher latitudes due to weak reconnection with the IMF. Expect
Mostly Quiet conditions to prevail over the next three days with
possible cases of Unsettled or Active levels particularly at
high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Sep 89
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Sep 79 near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 79 near predicted monthly values
10 Sep 79 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions noted during the UT day,
07 September. Expect near predicted HF conditions for the next
three days, 08-10 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Sep
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 31300 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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