[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 September 12 issued 2316 UT on 06 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 7 09:16:06 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 0413UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 125/78 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during the UT day, 06 September
with several C class flares from active regions 1564(S14E00)
and 1560(N04W59) in addition to an M1 x-ray class flare from
region 1560 peaking at 0413UT. The solar wind speed was moderate
to light during the UT day and the Bz component of the IMF was
mostly northward with short reversals to the southward orientation.
Expect solar activity to be Low for the next 3 days, 07-09 September,
with active regions 1564, 1562, and 1560 only likely to produce
C-class flares. Expect the solar wind to remain light today,
07 September, and to remain at light levels over the next three
days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 33110221
Darwin 9 34210321
Townsville 11 43221322
Learmonth 9 33221321
Norfolk Island 6 33110220
Camden 10 53110221
Canberra 6 33110211
Hobart 5 33110210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 33100210
Casey 14 44322322
Mawson 22 56210333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 36 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 24
Planetary 34 6643 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Sep 6 Quiet
08 Sep 6 Quiet
09 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled over the
UT day, 06 September, with isolated cases of Active levels at
mid to high latitudes early in the UT day. Expect Mostly Quiet
conditions to prevail over the next three days with possible
cases of Unsettled or Active levels particularly at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Sep 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Sep 79 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 79 Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep 79 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions noted during the UT day,
06 September. Expect near predicted HF conditions for the next
three days, 07-09 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 498 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 60900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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