[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 12 issued 2330 UT on 09 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 10 09:30:20 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1 2235UT possible lower Pacific/Australian
Region
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate during the UT day, 09 September
with an M1-class at approximately 2235UT from AR 1564(S13W54).
Active regions 1564 and 1568(S12W30) also produced C-class flares
this period. 1568 is a new emerging flux region. The M-class
flare on 8 September was close to an hour in duration, however
had no associated CME or type II sweep and therefore is not likely
to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed was light during the
UT day ranging between 350 and 400 km/s. The Bz component of
the IMF varied between -/+ 4nT. Expect Low solar activity for
the next three days with a chance of an M-class flare.
Expect the solar wind to remain light.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11110111
Darwin 2 11100112
Townsville 5 12211222
Learmonth 5 22121211
Norfolk Island 1 11100001
Camden 2 11110111
Canberra 1 01100101
Hobart 1 11100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 01110100
Casey 11 34421111
Mawson 9 12221134
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 3322 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 6 Quiet
11 Sep 6 Quiet
12 Sep 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet in the Australian region
with isolated cases of Active levels in the Antarctic region
over the UT day, 09 September. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
to prevail over the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep 79 Near predicted monthly values
11 Sep 79 Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep 79 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions noted during the UT day,
09 September with depressions at Cocos Island likely from lingering
effects of the weak magnetic storm. Expect near predicted HF
conditions for the next three days, 10-12 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 64800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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