[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 12 issued 2352 UT on 03 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 4 09:52:57 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 142
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with several C class flares.
A shock in the solar wind was detected in the ACE satellite data
at around 1130UT indicating the arrival of the CME observed on
August 31. Further CME impacts are expected sometime around the
middle of September 5 from the eruptions observed on September
1. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 18 22335334
Darwin 16 22225334
Townsville 13 2333----
Learmonth 7 2222----
Norfolk Island 11 2233----
Camden 18 22335334
Canberra 12 1333----
Hobart 22 13435434
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
Macquarie Island 24 2345----
Casey 11 3223----
Mawson 47 5635----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 28
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15 2332 2334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
05 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
06 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions were Quiet up until 12UT when a
sudden impulse was observed indicating the arrival of the CME
observed on August 31. Following this activity increased briefly
to Minor Storm levels followed by Unsettled to Active activity.
Conditions are expected to remain Unsettled to Active with some
chance of isolated Minor Storm periods for day 2 with further
CME impacts expected from eruptions observed on September 1.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to cause some disturbed
conditions in high and possibly mid latitudes over the next two
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
No data available over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs have been near predicted monthly values to mildly
enhanced. Geomagnetic activity at Active to Minor Storm levels
occurred overnight which is expected to cause some depressions
in the MUFs, particularly in southern regions. Current observations
after local dawn indicate that the MUFs are holding up which
suggests depressions are more likely to set in after local nightfall
with near predicted monthly values expected until then.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: NA
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: NA
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: NA
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 18100 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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