[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 12 issued 2331 UT on 02 Sep 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 3 09:31:50 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low with several C class flares.
The most significant active regions are region 1560(N03W17) and
1563(S25E31). Two potentially geoeffective CMEs were observed,
the first around 05UT and the second around 10UT. Available satellite
imagery of these events is currently patchy however they are
not associated with large flares and appear to be relatively
slow moving. Further analysis will be given in tomorrow's report
when more imagery should be available. The solar wind speed has
been light at just over 300 km/s however the IMF Bz component
has been southward by up to -9nT and remaining south of -5nT
for most of the last 24 hours. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic
ion enhancement event beginning 02/2045UT, which can be a precursor
to increased geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours. This
is most likely due to the CME observed on the 31st of August,
which is expected to arrive sometime in the later half of day
1, September 3. Solar activity is expected to be Low to Moderate
over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 9 23222232
Darwin 8 23222132
Townsville 11 23332232
Learmonth 10 23222242
Norfolk Island 6 22222122
Camden 8 13222232
Canberra 8 13222232
Hobart 10 23222242
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
Macquarie Island 19 12344541
Casey 10 33222232
Mawson 42 65633552
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2222 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 20 Active
04 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
05 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions have been Quiet to Unsettled with
an isolated Active period due to a sustained southward polarity
in the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). This appears to be
a coherent structure in the solar wind and is likely to continue
during day 1, leading to continued Unsettled conditions with
some isolated Active periods. In addition, the edge of a CME
is expected to strike the Earth sometime in the later half of
day 1, with Active conditions with possible isolated Minor Storm
periods expected in the following hours. Unsettled to Active
conditions are expected to continue into day 2, relaxing to Quiet
to Unsettled on day 3.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: A minor Polar Cap Absorption (PCA) has occurred over
the last 2 days, however the flux level is dropping and should
be below event thresholds by the end of day 1. Geomagnetic activity
expected over the next 3 days may lead to some disturbed conditions,
particularly at high and possibly some influence at mid latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep 96
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep 80 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 60 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs are at near predicted values across Australia.
On day 1 (3rd Sep UT) geomagnetic activity may cause reduction
in MUFs in the later half of the UT day, particularly in southern
regions. Some depressed periods are expected for central and
southern regions on day 2, improving on day 3. Depressions are
expected to be relatively mild with MUFs near predicted monthly
values for most of the time. There is a downside risk if the
geomagnetic activity is more intense than expected, so periods
of more significant depressions are possible, particularly on
day 2.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 319 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 18500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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