[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 12 issued 2347 UT on 04 Sep 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 5 09:47:21 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 SEPTEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep:  Low

Flares: None

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Sep             06 Sep             07 Sep
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low during the UT day, 04 September 
with several C class flares from active regions 1564(S14E13) 
and 1565(N11E08). The solar wind speed was slightly elevated 
over the UT day and the Bz component of the IMF ranged between 
+/-10nT resulting in periods of reconnection with the geomagnetic 
field. Proton event in progress just at threshold levels, 10pfu. 
Expect solar activity to remain Low for the next 3 days, mainly 
due to active region 1564. Expect the solar wind to remain slightly 
elevated today, 05 September and to slowly settle back to normal 
levels over the following two days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled with isolated
Active levels at high latitudes.

Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22332112
      Darwin               9   32322213
      Townsville          15   333-----
      Learmonth           11   133-----
      Norfolk Island      12   323-----
      Camden               8   22332112
      Canberra             7   222-----
      Hobart               9   23332112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    16   234-----
      Casey               27   444-----
      Mawson              30   345-----

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            41   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            53   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg       012
           Planetary            014                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg       010
           Planetary            012   3454 6544     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Sep    12    Unsettled
06 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
07 Sep     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 4 September 
and is current for 4-6 Sep. The geomagnetic field was Quiet to 
Unsettled over the UT day, 04 September, with isolated cases 
of Active levels at higher latitudes. Expect this trend to continue 
today, 05 September, and then to return to mostly Quiet levels 
with Unsettled levels at higher latitudes over the following 
two days. Note some stations have incomplete data due to an internet 
connection problem that is being worked on, sorry for the inconvenience.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Sep    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      No data available over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Sep    60    Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Slightly depressed conditions noted during the UT day, 
04 September, at mid to high latitudes and enhancements at low 
latitudes due to geomagnetic activity. Expect a gradual return 
to predicted HF condition over the next three days, with depressions 
of 5-15% today at mid to high latitudes and slight enhancements 
at low latitudes. Note some stations have incomplete data due 
to an internet connection problem that is being worked on, sorry 
for the inconvenience.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+08
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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